Juicing the Polls

August 2, 2012

Among the most astonishing things that have happened in the past few months is the dramatic change in political affiliation among the citizens of so-called "swing states." Polling released yesterday by the CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac College triumvirate indicates that based on the sample selected to participate in a recent Florida survey, 12 percent of Sunshine state voters have switched their political party from Republican to Democrat . . . in only three months!

In their poll released on August 1, the surveyors found that Obama was leading in Florida by six points - 51% to 45% - over Romney.

The poll's sponsors did not comment on the dramatic shift in voter sentiment; they left that for us to scratch our heads about.

Here's voter distribution data as it has changed in polling over the past four years:

July 2012
Democrat: 36%
Republican: 27%
Independent: 32%

May 2012
Democrat: 31%
Republican: 34%
Independent: 29%

November 2010
Democrat: 36%
Republican: 36%
Independent: 29%

November 2008
Democrat: 37%
Republican: 34%
Independent: 29%

It looks to be a classic case of the Democratic machine intimidating Quinnipiac - normally a reasonably reliable polling organization - into "walking back" its unfavorable May voter distribution, in much the same way California Congresswoman Dianne Feinstein was figuratively bludgeoned behind the scenes into recanting her assertion that "contemptible" national security leaks had come from the White House.

It appears that both Quinnipiac and Feinstein succumbed to offers they couldn't refuse from Obama's Chicago mob.

The crosstabs in the Florida polling are equally suspect. Among Florida women, Obama enjoys a 51%-44% lead, an absurd result given the outcome of CBS/New York Times national polling in May indicating that women favor Romney 46% to 44%. The same May poll had Romney winning the male vote nationally, while the most recent polling indicates that Romney is losing men by a 50% to 46% margin in Florida.

Ohio and Pennsylvania polling skews are similarly suspect. In Ohio the latest survey has eight percent more Democrats polled than in the 2010 mid-term elections. That's a nine point rise in the Democrat sample for the Buckeye state. The six point increase in Democratic voters polled in the latest Pennsylvania survey represents a three-point upward swing for Dems in that state, very optimistic given the recent downward spiral of Democratic voter enthusiasm that is being recorded in virtually every national poll.

The question becomes, "What would the results have revealed about voter sentiment if the polls hadn't been 'juiced' to produce yet another lie the Obama campaign needed to get out through a complicit media to an increasingly skeptical and unmotivated Democratic cohort?"

The answer is that even given the blatantly corrupt voter sample in the latest Florida polling, Obama is underperforming his 2008 polling numbers dramatically. In that year's polling against John McCain, Obama received about 57% of the combined Democrat/Republican sample. In this year's polling, he's dropped to 53% of that combined sample.

If a more representative sample of Florida voters had been polled - say a 36%/36% split between Democrats and Republicans - Romney would have trounced Obama.

The 36%/27% polling skew means that Obama got 33% more votes from Democrats and Republicans than he should have gotten if a truly representative sample had been polled. That translates to nearly a 21% discrepancy in the total vote. In other words, Romney would have received a portion of the total sample more than 20% greater than he did, and that would have resulted in a runaway Romney victory, with the Republican receiving 54% of the total voters queried in Florida had the polls not been juiced.

The Obama campaign, widely reported to be in panic mode at what they know real voter sentiment to be, has to resort to such blatant and corrupt distortion in order to get their lies about Obama's chances in the upcoming election out to the public. The problem is that the public is beginning to see through their tactics.

Comments on Quinnipiac's own website on the results of the Florida poll bear that out:

"Please explain this massive change in party ID."

"+9 Dems in Florida = Bogus Media move to prop up . . . Barack Obama."

"You keep coming here telling us how Romney is losing Florida, and the numbers don't bear it out. Just shut the hell up."

It's no wonder that Democrats are terminally anxious about their presidential candidate's chances. It looks, though, like juicing the polls isn't having the desired effect. As voters from both parties are exposed more and more to the lies and distortions emanating from Democratic campaign headquarters in Chicago, they're coming to realize that mob rule is not something they can tolerate further. They're seeing that juicing the polls is but one more dirty tactic Obama campaign director David Axelrod is pulling out of the hat to disguise the fact that the campaign is in fact drowning in its own juice.